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SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 28/07/2014 Weekly Gold Wrap Up: Gold: Prices Off Five Week Low, India Not Cutting Import Duties Soon Gold witnessed a corrective action before a late spurt and managed to end the weekabove $1300 per ounce levels. The US equities rallied despite the geopoliticaluncertainties and the US dollar hovered around its nine month high against the Euro. Thesetwo factors catapulted gold and the COMEX Gold dropped under $1300 per ounce, testing itsfive week low around $1290 per ounce mark. However, bargain buying emerged in the metal on25th July 2014 as sentiments were boosted after comments from Indian officials that thecountry is not planning to cut its gold import duty in the near term. The US stocks rose as across the board gains pushed the S&P 500 to close at arecord, inching towards the critical 2000 points level. This capped advances for gold. Thelatest leg down in gold has affected the sentiments as the metal is unable to gain fromgeopolitical unrest and equities are managing to hold up at the same time. US intelligenceofficials presented reporters that Russian-backed Ukrainian separatists shot down aMalaysia Airlines jetliner, according to media reports. This is likely to lead to a flareup in already strained Russia-US relations. A latest update from the World Gold Council (WGC) suggests that while the gold pricesare up in last few months, the volatility is down and gold has defied the bearish outlookfor the metal at the beginning of 2014. The WGC notes in its Investment Commentary for theFirst half of 2014 that consumer demand remains resilient for gold even after a recordyear in 2013. Central bank net purchases have picked up, adding approximately 180 tonnesto official reserves from January to May and the jewellery demand had its best firstquarter since 2005. India’s Finance Ministry has stated that currently it has no proposal to lowercustoms duty on gold from the current 10%. This is likely to disappoint the local goldimporters as there were high expectations of a cutback in the gold import duties followingthe improving current account deficit and rather mild undertone in global gold prices.Currently, there is no proposal to reduce the customs duty on gold, Minister of State forFinance Nirmala Sitharaman said in a written reply to the Lok Sabha. The quantity of goldimported during the April-June quarter of the current fiscal was 221 tonnes, while invalue terms it was Rs. 54,792 crore. The value of imported gold stood at Rs. 2.28 lakhcrore in 2011-12, Rs. 2.45 lakh crore in 2012-13 and Rs. 1.60 lakh crore in 2013-14.However, there has been a massive increase in gold smuggling. The local gold futures followed the action in global markets. The Indian rupee lingeredaround 60 per US dollar with the firm undertone in dollar in global markets keeping therupee on an edge. MCX Gold futures for August broke under Rs 28000 per 10 grams mark butwitnessed good buying support around Rs 27600 per 10 grams levels. Prices need to sustainabove Rs 28000 mark to see further gains.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 28/07/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Wrap Up: Geopolitical Worries Dominate Crude WTI Crude oil futures dropped in first two weeks of July on hopes that rising suppliesfrom Libya would depress sentiments. However, a tense geopolitical environment kept theWTI Crude supported at its two month low mark of $100 per barrel. Prices gained further,hitting highs above $103 per barrel as the US jobless claims hit their eight year lowmark. Russia rejected the US accusations that it had supplied missiles that brought downthe Malaysian Airlines passenger jet, even as the conflict intensified in eastern Ukrainewith increased tensions between Moscow and the West. Meanwhile, a key data showed that theUS commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)decreased by 4 million barrels, extending their recent drop further. At 371.1 millionbarrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the upper half of the average range for thistime of year. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell 1.5 millionbarrels. The weekly refinery utilization rate held steady at 93.8%, EIA data showed. MCXCrude oil futures surged above Rs 6200 per barrel before easing on profit selling.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/07/2014 12:15PM Commodities Buzz: Steel Production In The Country The minister of state for mines, steel and labor & employment, Shri Vishnu Deo Sai has said that steel authority of India limited (SAIL) has undertaken modernization and expansion of its five integrated steel plants at Bhilai, Bokaro, Rourkela, Durgapur & Burnpur and the special steel plant located at Salem to enhance its crude steel production capacity from 12.8 Mtpa to 21.4 Mtpa in the current phase. He said that the indicative investment for the current phase of modernization & expansion is Rs. 61,870 crore. Besides, a provision of Rs.10,264 crore has been made towards investment in the existing mines under raw materials division (RMD) and development of rowghat mines. He said that steel being a deregulated industry, the role of the Government is limited to that of a facilitator and to provide a conducive policy environment. Specific decisions on investment are taken by the steel companies / new investors on the basis of their assessment of returns on capital and other considerations. However, the Government has taken the following measures to increase the steel production in the country; An Inter Ministerial Group (IMG) has been set up in the Ministry of Steel for effective coordination and expediting implementation of various investment projects in the steel sector. A project Monitoring Group (PMG) has been constituted under the Cabinet Secretariat to fast track various clearances / resolution of issues delaying the investments of Rs.1000 crores or more in the manufacturing / infrastructure sector including the steel sector. Import of critical raw materials for steel industry such as coking coal, non-coking coal and scrap are subject to zero or very low levels of custom duty. To increase domestic value addition and improve iron ore availability for domestic steel industry, duty on export of iron ore has been increased to 30%. Recently, the Government has imposed export duty @ 5% ad-valorem on export of iron ore pellets. The Minister presented Indias last three years steel production and April-June, 2014 demand and supply position.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/07/2014 12:13PM Commodities Buzz: Anglo America Copper Production Increases by 12% in H1 2014 Anglo America results that were released last week showed that the Kumba Iron Ore production increased during second quarter ending 2014. Kumba Iron Ore production increased by 2% to 11.5 million tonnes following a solid performance at both Sishen and Kolomela. Waste removal at Sishen remained a key operational focus during the quarter. Half yearly production of Iron Ore was 22.8 million tonnes, up 5% from 21.6 million tonnes in H1 2013. The company also reported that the export metallurgical coal production increased by 10% to 4.8 million tonnes due to productivity improvements at open cut operations and Grasstree. This was partially offset by a longwall move at Moranbah and subsequent geotechnical issues with the cutting panel. Copper production increased by 6% to 194400 tonnes, with improved production from Los Bronces and Collahuasi due to higher throughput, partially offset by expected lower production at El Soldado. Half yearly production of Copper production for period ending June 2014 was 396400 tonnes, up 12% compared to 353300 tonnes in half year ending June 2013. Meanwhile, Nickel production increased by 25% to 10600 tonnes driven by continued improved operational stability at Barro Alto, prior to the planned rebuild of the furnaces commencing in the second half of the year. Nickel production in half year ending June 2014 was up by 35% to 19800 tonnes, compared to 14700 tonnes in the corresponding period last year.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/07/2014 11:56AM Economic Buzz: Japan Leading Index Dips Lower In May Japans leading index fell to 104.8 in May from 106.5 in April. The score was revised down from 105.7. The latest reading was the lowest since January 2013, when the score was 102.9. The index declined more than estimated in May to the lowest since early 2013, final data from Cabinet Office showed Tuesday. The coincident index, which measures the current economic situation, rose slightly to a revised 111.3 in May from 111.1 in the previous month. According to initial estimate, the index remained unchanged at 111.1 in May. Meanwhile, the lagging index, which indicates the past economic situation, dropped marginally to revised 117.8 in May from 117.9 in April.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/07/2014 11:47AM Economic Buzz: China LEI Rises 1.3%, Economic Lift Seen Policy Induced The Conference Board Leading Economic Index(R) (LEI) for China rose by 1.3% in June tostand at 294.0 (2004 = 100). The index had recorded a 0.7% increase in May. Five of thesix components contributed positively to the index in June. Junes pickup in the leadingeconomic index for China is unlikely to be fully felt until the final quarter of the year,even though slight monetary loosening and better export performance could underpin moreeconomic activity sooner, says Andrew Polk, resident economist at The Conference BoardChina Center in Beijing. The economys recent lift was mainly policy-induced as large amounts of infrastructurespending breathed life into the industrial sector, but the rate of growth remains fragileunless underlying consumer and investment conditions solidly strengthen. The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index(R) (CEI) for China, which measurescurrent economic activity, increased 0.9% in June to 262.1 (2004 = 100). All fivecomponents contributed positively to the index in June.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/07/2014 11:24AM MCX Gold Slides Under Rs 28K In First Hour Of Trade MCX Gold futures are in red, breaking under Rs 28000 levels in the first hour of trade.The COMEX Gold futures are having difficulty in holding on after safe haven buying. Themetal shot up in last few days as investors remained cautious following the shooting downof a Malaysian airliner in eastern Ukraine late last week, with the U.S. blamingpro-Russian separatists for the act. However, the Asian equities are edging higher andCOMEX Gold is down $5.10 per ounce at $1308.80 per ounce. MCX Gold futures are trading atRs 27908 per 10 grams, down Rs 179 per 10 grams or 0.64% on the day. US stocks recorded modest losses in overnight trades amid continued tensions on theRussia front and gold saw some profit selling too. US Secretary of State John Kerry saidSunday that there was overwhelming evidence of Russian complicity in the downing of theairliner. Russia and Ukraine still accuse each other of being behind the downed passengerplane. Western leaders from the U.K., France and Germany have warned Russian PresidentVladimir Putin of increased sanctions by Tuesday if international investigators are notallowed full access to the crash site. Gold and silver also benefited from Israelsintensifying ground offensive into Gaza against Hamas militants who fired hundreds ofrockets into Israel. Gold had rallied last week. A latest update from the World Gold Council (WGC) suggeststhat while the prices are up, the volatility is down and gold has defied the bearishoutlook for the metal at the beginning of 2014. The WGC notes in its Investment Commentaryfor the First half of 2014 that consumer demand remains resilient for gold even after arecord year in 2013. Central bank net purchases have picked up, adding approximately 180tonnes to official reserves from January to May and the jewellery demand had its bestfirst quarter since 2005. The council notes that while investment demand in some sectors has in fact been tepid,it continues to see that interest in gold is gaining momentum. Net long positions in thefutures market have gradually increased as short positions have been covered, ETFs haveexperienced inflows in recent months, and coin sales are increasing.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/07/2014 11:04AM Indian Rupee: Edges Higher The Indian rupee opened higher on Tuesday, 22 July 2014 tracking gains in the Asian currencies markets. The domestic currency commenced stronger by 7 paise at Rs 60.23 against the US dollar and edged down to a low of 60.25 before bouncing back to a high of 60.18 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 60.20, up 10 paise or 0.16% as compared to previous close at 60.30. Rupee ended flat yesterday, continuing a pattern of holding in tight ranges, with trading dominated by dollar sales from foreign banks but offset by solid greenback demand from oil companies and other importers. Higher shares also continued to underpin sentiment, with indexes gaining for a fifth consecutive session amid continued buying by foreign investors. Domestic benchmark indices surged in early trade as firmness in Asian stocks boosted sentiment. Asian stock markets inched higher on Tuesday as investors set aside geopolitical concerns to focus on the generally upbeat flow of U.S. corporate earnings ahead of a host of results duethis week. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was strong. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 96.14 points or 0.37% to 25,811.31 while the CNX Nifty was up 33.20 points or 0.43% to 7,717.40. In the global currency market, the dollar stood little-changed and confined to a narrow range against the euro and yen on Tuesday, as currencies lost some momentum on a slight reduction in geopolitically-inspired risk aversion.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/07/2014 8:17AM Technical Comment For Day: Crude oil MCX Crude Oil settled at Rs 6259 per barrel, up 0.81%. This was also the expiry price for July contract. Long term support for Crude Oil is at Rs 5968 per barrel. The prices have seen advancement in last few days. August expiry contract settled at Rs 6190 per barrel, up 0.29%. The open interest has shifted to August expiry contract of Crude Oil. On the last trading session Crude Oil tested a high of Rs 6205 per barrel and a low of 6135 per barrel. The resistance of Crude Oil is at Rs 6280 per barrel. Long term resistance for Crude Oil is at Rs 6480 per barrel. RSI is at 52 that can show some more growth in coming sessions. Volumes have also built to 28623.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/07/2014 8:16AM Technical Comment For The Day: Gold Gold closed above Rs 28000 per 10 grams on Monday. The prices gained Rs 28087 per 10 grams, up 0.34%. The supports are at Rs 27381 per 10 grams, while resistance for the contract is at Rs 28390 per 10 grams. The resistance is near 200 day EMA. Gold is in a rising bottom formation, with higher highs and higher lows. In coming days, a range bound trades are expected as in last few session Gold has been unable to cross Rs 28500 on the higher side, and Rs 27300 on the lower side. A trend reversal is only expected when this range is broken.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/07/2014 8:17AM Technical Comment For The Day: Copper Gains in MCX Copper on 21 July 2014 were sharp and to a great extent broke the bearish trend built during the day. The prices settled at Rs 428.5 per kg, up 0.56%. The prices tested a high of Rs 429.3 and a low of Rs 424.85 per kg. Even after the recovery it is noted that the prices have failed to break Rs 430 per kg on the closing basis. The resistance of Rs 433 and 430 per kg is where Copper will find friction. On the lower side the undercurrent is on the down side with supports at Rs 417 per kg. Copper is near to its 200 day EMA at Rs 425.8 per kg. RSI is at 49. Copper is in a rising wedge pattern, the bullish trend reversal is expected if Copper breaks the pattern which has supports of Rs 425 per kg.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/07/2014 9:21AM Economic Buzz: Singapore Q2 GDP At 2.1% Singapores gross domestic product expanded 2.1 percent on year in the second quarter of 2014, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said in Mondays advance estimate, following the downwardly revised 4.7 percent gain the previous three months (originally 4.9 percent). Seasonally adjusted and on an annualized quarterly basis, GDP contracted 0.8 percent, down from the downwardly revised 1.6 percent gain in Q1 (originally 2.3 percent). The manufacturing sector gained 0.2 percent on year in Q2, moderating from the 9.9 percent expansion in the previous quarter. The construction sector climbed 5.0 percent on year, compared to 6.4 percent in the preceding quarter. The services producing industries collected 2.8 percent on year, following the 3.9 percent growth in Q2.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/07/2014 9:24AM Economic Buzz: New Zealand House Prices Fall In June New Zealands house prices index dropped 0.3 percent month-over-month to 3,913.3 in June. The REINZ housing price Index declined in June, data from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand, or REINZ, showed Monday. Annually, the REINZ housing price index rose 6.2 percent in June.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/07/2014 9:25AM Technical Comment For The Day: Copper Copper prices remained silent during the day and ended the session close to the Thursday levels. The prices settled at Rs 436.55 per kg, down 0.23%. The prices tested a high of Rs 437.55 per kg and a low of Rs 433.7 per kg. The resistance in Copper from current levels is at Rs 438 per kg. Meanwhile, the friction in the last few days is extending the journey of Copper towards Rs 438. Supports for the contract are at Rs 430 per kg. A rising wedge pattern for Copper is in the making; however any confirmation from the metal is yet to be seen.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/07/2014 9:30AM Technical Comment For The Day: Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil settled at Rs 6070 per barrel, down 1.8%. The prices tested a high of Rs 6203 per barrel and a low of Rs 6056 per barrel. After testing a double top formation on 23 June 2014, prices have once against corrected due to inability to break Rs 6500 per barrel. Supports of Rs 5960 per barrel are a stiff zone, which will be tough for Crude Oil to break. Open interest in the contract was at 8545 against 7791 on Thursday, an indicator that the short positions were increased by day traders. The broad range of Crude Oil is now at Rs 6320 and 5960 per barrel.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/07/2014 9:39AM Technical Comment For The Day: Gold Gold remained in a volatile zone with prices swinging between Rs 28528 and 27381 per 10 grams during the week. The last session of the week saw some profit booking with Gold ending at Rs 28356 per 10 grams. It is expected that Gold can yet again move lower looking at the international COMEX prices that are down by $ 3.5 to trade at $ 1333 per troy ounce. On the lower side, supports for MCX Gold are quite low at Rs 27940 per 10 grams. On the higher side, the prices will be looking to move towards Rs 28700 per 10 grams. With RSI at 73, Gold is looking slightly overbought that can induce profit booking in the metal.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/07/2014 10:41AM Commodities Buzz: Fund Managers Remained Lured Towards Copper Buying The money managers of Copper remained lured towards the buying of metal for the third straight week. Commitment of Traders (CoT) came out with its weekly report showing that money managers are further increasing their long positions in the red metal. Commitment of Traders showed that the long positions of Copper increased by 11673. The total long positions of Copper for the one week period ending 8 July 2014 was 56092 against 44419 on 1 July 2014, up 26.27%. Meanwhile short positions for Copper on 8 July were 17815 against 19729 on 1 July 2014, down 9.7%. The decline in short positions by 1914 is an indicator for shift of trading interest towards long positions. The net positions are in favour of long position holders and were 38277 on 8 July, up 55% from 24690 for the period ending 1 July 2014. Indian Copper prices were last seen trading at Rs 435.75 per kg, down 0.18% from last session. The prices tested a high of Rs 436.25 per kg, and a low of Rs 435.25 per kg. COMEX Copper was trading at $ 3.266 per pound, up 0.3 cents.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 11/07/2014 9:10AM Technical Comment For The Day: Copper Unlike expectations there was a bounce in Copper yet again and the prices galloped towards Rs 437.5 per kg in the intra day. The session saw huge volatility with low close to Rs 430.5 per kg. On the higher side, 437.8 per kg was the session high. If the bull run continues the next target for Copper is set at Rs 444 per kg. The prices are expected to remain in a choppy zone today as well. Supports can emerge at RS 434 and 430 per kg.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 11/07/2014 9:12AM Technical Comment For The Day: Gold The next bull wave in Gold has started as in a single session Gold managed to break the levels of Rs 28200 which was critical for this rally. The rise in Gold can now extend upto Rs 28700 and 29000 levels. The heavy volumes seen in Gold was due to the fact that import duties in Interim Budget was kept static. Gold also moved ahead of the 100 day EMA set at Rs 28347 per 10 grams. With higher highs formation, the rally is expected to continue with minor bouts of profit booking during the day.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 11/07/2014 9:15AM Technical Comment For The Day: Crude Oil Short covering rally was noted in the prices of Crude Oil during the session ending on 10 July 2014. The rise in Crude Oil was expected as the RSI was pointing towards oversold situation. With the jump towards Rs 6180 per barrel on settlement, Crude has further opened gates to ride towards Rs 6250 and 6300 per barrel. On the lower side, Rs 6060 per barrel will be acting as the supports for the prices in future. In terms of retracement levels, Rs 6227 is the 50% retracement level for Crude Oil in Fibonacci channel.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 11/07/2014 9:22AM Economic Buzz: U.S. Wholesale Inventories Up 0.5% In May US wholesale inventories increased by 0.5 percent in May after jumping by a revised 1.0 percent in April. The report said wholesale inventories rose by slightly less than anticipated in the month of May, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Thursday, compared to the 1.1 percent increase originally reported for the previous month. While inventories of durable goods surged up by 1.0 percent in May, the increase was partly offset by a 0.3 percent drop in inventories of non-durable goods. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said wholesale sales rose by 0.7 percent in May after soaring by 1.3 percent in the previous month.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 11/07/2014 11:12AM Commodities Buzz: Chinese Exports Growth Picks Up In June 2014 Chinese exports growth started picking up in June, even the imports transformed into gains. The gains in exports were 7.2% on a y-o-y basis in May as per the data from General Administration of Customs. Chinese imports increased by 5.5% on a y-o-y basis, after it had contracted by 1.6% in the month of May 2014. Analysts were expecting gains of 10% in exports.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 11/07/2014 11:20AM Indian Rupee: Recovers From Early Loses The Indian rupee edged lower at commencement on Friday, 11 July, 2014 but managed to regain soon after. The rupee saw its biggest single-day decline in nearly a month on Thursday as the euphoria over the Budget was washed away by the sharp fall in European shares while key stop-losses were also triggered. Prime Minister Narendra Modis new government on Thursday unveiled a maiden Budget that seeks to revive growth and curb borrowing, but left open questions on how it would reduce the fiscal deficit and restore investor confidence. The domestic currency opened weaker by 8 paise at Rs 60.25 against the US dollar but recovered back to a high of 60.11 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 60.17, almost unchanged as compared to previous close. Finance Minster Arun Jaitley made a number of announcements in Union Budget 2014-15 on Thursday, 10 July 2014, such as a proposal to increase in foreign direct investment in insurance and defence manufacturing, a sharp increase in plan expenditure, measures to boost long term financing for infrastructure by banks and provided clarity on taxation with respect to foreign portfolio investors. But, market expectations that the Finance Minster would scrap the law on retrospective taxation were not met. Volatility continued as key benchmark indices once again regained positive terrain after slipping into the negative terrain from positive terrain in morning trade. Asian shares recouped early losses on Friday as sentiment in the region proved resilient to Portuguese bank concerns amid signs offshore funds were returning to emerging world assets. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was positive. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 45.29 points or 0.18% to 25,418.04 while the CNX Nifty was up 21.85 points or 0.29% at 7,589.60. Meanwhile, industrial output is seen rising 3.8% in May 2014, higher than 3.4% growth in April, as per the median estimates of a poll of economists carried out by Capital Market. The government will unveil industrial production data for May 2014 today, 11 July 2014. In the global currency market, the yen is poised to end the week higher as a fall in global equities lifted demand for the safe-haven currency. The dollar index, which measures the US currencys strength against major currencies, was trading at 80.122, down 0.01% from its the previous close of 80.127.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 08/07/2014 10:39AM Agri Buzz: Vietnam Aims To Earn 1.3 Billion USD From Pepper Exports By 2020 Vietnam has set to earn 1.2 to 1.3 billion U.S. dollars from pepper exports by 2020, a recent planning of Vietnams Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) revealed on Thursday. According to the planning, Vietnam will strive to maintain a pepper grown area of 50,000 hectares across the country by 2020, with productivity of three tonnes per hectare. The countrys annual output is set to be 140,000 tonnes, Vietnamese governments e-Portal quoted the planning as saying on Thursday. Vietnam exported 1,14,000 metric tonnes of pepper valued USD819 million during January-June 2014, up 40.80% in volume terms and by 53.20% in value terms over same periods last year, updates from the General Statistics Office of Vietnam showed. On a month wise, 20,000 tonnes with USD156 million exported in June 2014. The re-estimated export figure for May 2014 stood at 20,000 tonnes and USD152 million in value terms. Vietnams average pepper export price in the first five months enjoyed an increase of 6.95 percent year on year to hit 7,013 U.S. dollars per ton. Since 1996, pepper cultivated areas have been expanded, with an increase of nearly 30 percent, reaching over 52,000 hectares by the end of 2004. The countrys largest pepper producers are located in the Central Highlands provinces of Dak Lak, Gia Lai and Dak Nong, and southern provinces of Dong Nai, Binh Phuoc and Ba Ria-Vung Tau. In 2013, Vietnam exported over 119,000 tons of pepper, earning 808 million U.S. dollars, a decrease of 4.2 percent in volume, but an increase of 10.4 percent in value year on year, making Vietnam the top pepper exporter in the world, according to Vietnams General Statistics Office.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 08/07/2014 10:30AM Indian Rupee: Cautious Ahead Of Budget The Indian rupee edged higher at commencement on Tuesday, July 08, 2014 on increased selling of the American currency by exporters. However, the local unit continues to remain cautious ahead of the Union Budget to be unveiled tomorrow. The domestic currency opened up by 6 paise at Rs 59.95 against the US dollar and dipped to a low of 59.99 before bouncing back to a high of 59.85 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 59.85, stronger by 16 paise or 0.27% as compared to previous close at 60.01. Rupee saw its biggest single-day fall in nearly three weeks on Monday as investors turned cautious ahead of the upcoming federal budget this week while lack of dollar inflows due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday also hurt. Domestic benchmark indices trimmed gains after opening on a firm note. The barometer index, the S&P BSE Sensex, and the 50-unit CNX Nifty, both scaled record high. Asian stocks were subdued on Tuesday as Wall Street turned cautious ahead of the corporate reporting season and as earnings guidance from regional tech heavyweight Samsung came in well short of forecasts. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market was positive. Indian stocks are witnessing a pre-Budget rally amid expectations that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley will announce measures in the Budget aimed at bolstering economic growth. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 27.48 points or 0.11% to 26,127.56 while the CNX Nifty was up 0.75 points or 0.01% to 7,787.90. In the global currency market, the dollar started trade in Asia on the back foot on Tuesday having run out of puff near a two-week high, giving the euro a chance to get over an unexpected slump in German industrial output. The dollar index, which measures the US currencys strength against major currencies, was trading at 80.22, up 0.01% from its the previous close of 80.21.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 08/07/2014 10:05AM Agri Buzz : SEA Of India Estimates 47% Decline In Oilmeal Exports During June, 2014 The Solvent Extractors Association of India overall export of oilmeals during June 2014 is reported at 1.93 lakh tons compared to 3.60 tons in April 2013 i.e. down by 47%, The export of soybean meal drastically reduced to just 2,637 tons, lowest in the history, however export of rapeseed meal and castor meal saved the situation. The export ofsoybean meal reduced due to poor availability of soybean coupled with high price lead to total disparity in international market.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 08/07/2014 9:20AM Technical Comment For The Day: Copper Copper prices have reached a level where further rally would not be as aggressive as the previous one. Although prices continued to keep the rally alive for the fourth straight day, the trading range was skewed. The prices tested a high of Rs 435.6 per kg, and a low of Rs 431.35 per kg. The resistance in Copper from current levels is at Rs 438 per kg. The moves above Rs 438 per kg can prove really beneficial for the prices in the medium to long run. The prices will then be eyeing Rs 450 per kg. Meanwhile, supports for the prices are at Rs 428 per kg. The open interest has not remained formidable and on Monday were only 12008, compared to 25000 during the same period last month.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 08/07/2014 9:19AM Technical Comment For The Day: Gold Gold yet again came in the grip of day sellers. The prices declined most of the day although in the last session it again recovered marginally to close at Rs 27490 per 10 grams, down 0.24%. The upside has been limited to Rs 27800 per 10 grams in last few sessions, while the supports are expected to be near Rs 27100. It should be taken into account that Gold was not able to cross 50 day EMA which was set at Rs 27558 per 10 grams. In last one month, Gold has also been unable to cross the 200 day EMA at Rs 28393 per 10 grams. Meanwhile, in Fibonacci retracements, Gold is below 38.2% retracement level.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 08/07/2014 9:15AM Technical Comment For Day: Crude oil MCX Crude Oil settled at Rs 6215 per barrel, down 0.11%. The prices tested a high of Rs 6254 per barrel and a low of Rs 6196 per barrel. Important thing to note is that the supports of Rs 6160 and 6140 per barrel is holding. RSI is at 35 that indicates oversold situation in the prices. Supplies are expected to take shape near Rs 6300 per barrel. Open interest declined for yet another day and settled at 10643 on 7 July against 11652 on 4 July 2014. The volumes in Crude Oil increased to 44406. In the Fibonacci channel the 61.8% retracement is set at Rs 6150 per barrel.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 08/07/2014 8:45AM Economic Buzz: Australian NAB Business Confidence Improves In June Australian NAB business confidence index increased to 8 in June from 7 in May despite the governments challenging new budget. Business confidence improved in June, although conditions remained sub-trend, results of a survey by the National Australia Bank showed Tuesday. This improvement was driven by strengthened confidence in almost all the industries, with the surge in construction industry confidence contributing the most. New orders remained stagnant in June, the same as in May.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 08/07/2014 8:44AM Economic Buzz: Japan May Current Account Surplus At Y522.8 Billion Japan posted a current account surplus of 522.8 billion yen in May, up from 187.4 billion yen in April, the Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday, remaining in the black for the fourth straight month. The trade balance reflected a deficit of 675.9 billion yen, following the 780.4 billion yen deficit in the previous month. Exports were up 2.0 percent on year to 5.718 trillion yen, while imports eased 0.4 percent to 6.394 trillion yen.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 03/07/2014 10:03AM Agri Buzz : Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs Approves Additional Allocation for 50 lakh Tonnes of Rice for Distribution For BPL Category The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved additional allocation for 50 lakh tonnes of rice for distribution to Below Poverty Line (BPL) families at BPL prices and Above Poverty Line (APL) price for the period July, 2014 to March, 2015 or till implementation of the National Food Security Act (NFSA) by the respective State/UT whichever is earlier. This will mitigate the problems of the people due to inflation in food prices, particularly in those States/UTs where the NFSA has not been implemented so far.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 03/07/2014 10:01AM Agri Buzz :Government Imposes Stock Limit On Potato and Onion The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs has approved the inclusion of onion and potato under the purview of stock holding limits under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. This will empower the State Governments to undertake de-hoarding operations and to control the prices of onions and potatoes. This decision is expected to help in the efforts being taken to tackle the problem of rising prices and also improve the availability of these commodities to the general public especially vulnerable sections. The main objective of Control Orders is to enable State Governments to continue to take effective de-hoarding operations under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955 by fixing stock limits/licensing requirements etc. in respect of these commodities especially in view of rising prices. The Central Government has already delegated powers by empowering State Governments to fix stock holding limits etc., as per local conditions and to undertake de-hoarding operations commensurate with the objective of the Central orders.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 03/07/2014 9:59AM Commodities Buzz: Outokumpu Receives A Claim In Spain Related To The Divested Copper Companies Outokumpu divested all of its copper business between 2003 and 2008. One of the divested companies domiciled in Spain faced a bankruptcy. The administrator in bankruptcy have filled a claim against Outokumpu Oyj and two other non-Outokumpu companies, for recovery of payments made by the bankrupt Spanish company in connection with the divestment. Outokumpu finds there are strong arguments for rejecting the claim of EUR 20 million, given that there are two legal opinions stating that the recovery claim is statute-barred. Furthermore, creditors of the bankrupt company at the time of divestment have been paid. The judgment in this litigation is expected during the third quarter this year.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 03/07/2014 9:54AM Agri Buzz : Brazil Government Defends Decision to Temporarily Drop Wheat Import Tariff The Brazilian Minister of Agriculture has countered criticism from farm organizations concerning the governments decision to temporarily eliminate the 10% import tariff imposed on wheat imported from outside the Merosur trading block by insisting it was done to allow cheaper wheat to be imported into northeastern Brazil. The elimination of the 10% tariff is expected to allow an additional one million tons of wheat to be imported into Brazil by mid-August. The Minister contends that the wheat would have been imported regardless of the elimination of the import tariff, so why make wheat more expensive in northeastern Brazil for no valid reason. The fact is even if the 10% import tariff remained in place, it would still be cheaper to import wheat from the U.S. or Canada into northeastern Brazil than it is to transport wheat by truck from the production areas of southern Brazil into northeastern Brazil. Critics of the decision, such as the National Agriculture Confederation (CAN), contend that the reduction will result in lower wheat prices for Brazilian producers. In fact, since the reduction was announced, domestic wheat prices in Brazil have declined and are approaching the lowest levels of the year. They contend that it was unfair to push down prices for producers just to make wheat a little more affordable for consumers in northeastern Brazil. Producers in Rio Grande do Sul have also complained that they were still in the midst of planting their wheat when the tariff elimination was announced, in other words, they changed the rules in the middle of the game. If wheat prices fall to below the guaranteed minimum price, they contend that the government will have to spend precious resources to purchase the wheat, so why not let the market determine the price of wheat instead of government action? Many suspect that the government eliminated the tariff as away counter rising inflation. By lowering wheat prices, it helps to hold down food inflation which could be a contentious issue as presidential campaigning gets underway for the October presidential elections. Brazilian farmers are expected to produce a record wheat crop in 2014 and Conab is estimating that Brazil will produce 7.3 million tons of wheat compared to 5.5 million tons produced in 2013.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 03/07/2014 9:15AM Economic Buzz: Australia Retail Sales Down 0.5% In May Australia retail sales were down a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on month in May, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, coming in at A$22.990 billion following the downwardly revised 0.1 percent decline in April (originally up 0.2 percent).
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 03/07/2014 7:56AM Technical Comment For The Day: Copper After crossing a important hurdle of Rs 430, Copper has reached a stage where further gains are expected in the weekly charts, although the confidence of day traders might be wobbly considering the profit booking opportunities. The gains in Copper can easily extend to Rs 438 per kg in coming days. The prices ended Wednesday trades at Rs 432.75 per kg, up 1.18%. The metal tested a high of Rs 433.3 and a low of Rs 425.3 per kg. RSI in intraday set up has reached 80, which is the overbought zone. The prices recovered from its 200 day EMA, which is a sign of further strength in weekly charts. However it should be noted that the gains are coming with drawdown in open interest.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 03/07/2014 7:56AM Technical Comment For The Day: Crude Oil As expected, Crude oil on MCX declined for the fifth consecutive session. The prices tested a high of Rs 6350 per barrel but soon got barged with increase of short positions and the simultaneous decline in long contracts. Crude Oil has now become quite weak with closing below Rs 6300 per barrel. A rising wedge pattern has also been broken on the downside an indication that Rs 6200 and 6140 will be next targets for Crude Oil. The prices tested a high of Rs 6350 and a low of Rs 6232 per barrel. Marking a Fibonacci retracement pattern in Crude Oil the prices are expected to test Rs 6169, which is 61.8% retracement level.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 03/07/2014 7:55AM Technical Comment For The Day: Gold Gold prices on MCX are slowly curbing downwards, although a formidable move on the downside is yet to be seen. The prices of Gold ended at Rs 27663 per 10 grams on Wednesday, down 0.30%. The resistance zone of Rs 28000 and 28200 has become strong after last night moves. The prices of Gold has not yet broken 50 day EMA set at Rs 27562 per 10 grams breaking which some more correction is on the cards. On intraday charts, lower highs have been noted since March 2014.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 7:33AM Technical Comment For The Day: Copper MCX Copper opened on a dull note but closed with gains on its side. During the day prices showed some strength and tested a high of Rs 423.15 per kg. On the lower side Rs 417.1 per kg was tested in the day. Copper ended near days high, at Rs 422.35 per kg, up only more than 1%. Copper is almost on the verge of breaking the 200 day EMA that is set at Rs 424.97 per kg. The June expiry Copper that had its last trading day has paved way for August Copper that gained by 1.22% to settle at Rs 428.9 per kg.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 7:37AM Technical Comment For Day: Crude oil The disability for the Crude Oil to cross Rs 6400 mark has brought correction in the benchmark contract on the MCX. The prices tried to move near to Rs 6400 but profit booking chipped in and Crude Oil ended at Rs 6335 per barrel. The gains in Crude Oil were limited to Rs 6375 per barrel. The prices tested a high of Rs 6375 and a low of Rs 6314 per barrel. Volumes have picked up steam, while fall in Open interest raise expectations that the price can go down further. Open interest was at 9738 against 10539. The first support for Crude Oil is at 25 day EMA of Rs 6283 per barrel. The next support level for Crude Oil is at Rs 6211 per barrel, which is the 50 day EMA.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 10:13AM Commodities Buzz: Japan Stainless Steel Crude Production Totals 264709 Tons In May 2014 Japans stainless steel crude steel production totaled 264,709 tons in May, decreasing by 1.3 % month on month and increasing by 14.1% year on year. Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal and JFE Steels Chiba plant have remained their production steady but the output from Nisshin Steels Shunan factory has been effected due to fire incident. However, the fire accident has been recovered on May 9th and the company back to normal operation accordingly.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 10:07AM Agri Buzz : Sugarcane Production In Brazil Is Set To Decline In 2014-15 On EL Nino Effect Continued dry weather in southern Brazil is adding up to a no-win situation for sugarcane producers in southern Brazil. The sugarcane continues to suffer from the prolonged drought that started in December of last year, but if El Nino-triggered heavy rains start to fall during the second half of 2014, they could end the drought but dilute the sucrose content of the already diminished sugarcane crop. Even if the drought would end, sugar and ethanol production could still end up below current projections. In southern Brazil sugarcane producers harvested 595 million tons of sugarcane in 2013/14, but estimates for the 2014/15 harvest continue to decline with some estimates as low as 570 million tons. In some of the hardest hit regions of Sao Paulo, sugarcane production in 2014/15 could decline by as much as 30% to 60%. From the beginning of the harvest until the end of May, the average sugarcane yield was 78.4 tons per hectare or 7.3% less than during the same period in 2013. As a result of the lower production, some sugar mills have had to harvest more hectares of sugarcane compared to recent years in order to maintain their levels of sugar and ethanol production. This has led to speculation that the harvest may end earlier than normal if the current harvest pace is not slowed down. Some mill operators have already slowed their harvest pace in order to allow the newly planted sugarcane to gain more height and therefore more tonnage before it is harvested. The dry weather appears to have impacted the older sugarcane more so than the younger sugarcane. Losses appear to be greater in the sugarcane fields that were to be cut for the fifth or sixth time. Even though the younger sugarcane has not suffered as much from the drought, it too is expected to be a disappointing harvest. Once sugarcane is planted, it can be harvested annually for up to six years before the productivity starts to decline by as much as 10% per year after 5-6 cuttings. The dilemma for sugarcane producers is that if heavy rains return to the region during the second half of 2014, which is typical for an El Nino year, the total tonnage of sugarcane may increase, but the total recoverable sugars (sucrose) in the remaining sugarcane would decline resulting in lower sugar or ethanol production. Many small producers are already undercapitalized after suffering from several years of adverse weather and low sugarcane prices and they can ill afford what appears to be another bad year. If sugar and sugarcane prices do not rebound quickly, many small producers may go out of business, especially producers who sell directly to the sugar mills
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 10:00AM Indian Rupee: Extends Winning Streak The Indian rupee climbed higher on Tuesday, 01 July, 2014, extending its winning streak for the fourth day in a row. The local unit tracked gains in Asian currencies and stocks but remained range bound owing to geopolitical tension in Iraq and suspected central bank intervention. The domestic currency opened stronger by 8 paise at Rs 60.11 against the US dollar but dipped to a low of 60.20 thereafter. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 60.16, up by 3 paise or 0.05% as compared to previous close at 60.19. Rupee fell on Monday, posting its first quarterly fall in three, as suspected intervention by the central bank continues to prevent the currency from gaining much above 60 to the dollar. Domestic benchmark indices edged higher in early trade after provisional data showed that foreign funds made substantial purchases of Indian stocks on Monday, 30 June 2014. Asian shares were off to a cautious start near a three-year high on Tuesday while the U.S. dollar was listless as investors took new bets that U.S. monetary policy will stay loose for some time. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 1288.16 crore on Monday, 30 June 2014, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 111.30 points or 0.44% to 25,525.08 while the CNX Nifty was up 26.20 points or 0.34% to 7,637.55 In the global currency market, the dollar languished at seven-week lows against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday, having extended a month-long decline after a recent batch of mixed data cast doubts on the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 9:54AM Oil Bounces Back On Strong China PMI Crude oil futures bounced back in the Asia electronic session today following the strong China manufacturing PMI for June. The final June reading for the HSBC PMI is due out later Tuesday. Chinas official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51 in June from 50.8 in May, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which issues the data with the National Bureau of Statistics, said in a statement Tuesday. The overall improvement echoes a rise in the HSBC "flash" manufacturing PMI, released earlier in June, which rose to 50.8 in June. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for August delivery are trading up 25 cents at $ 105.62 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Yesterday, it fell 37 cents, or 0.4%, to settle at $105.37 a barrel. For the month the prices are up nearly 3% and are up nearly 4% on the quarter. Mixed data releases from US yesterday weighed down on the prices. The National Association of Realtors reported earlier that pending home sales jumped 6.1% in May from April, rising to its highest level since last September. Mays figure marked the largest increase since August 2010. The Chicago purchasing managers’ index declined to 62.6 this month from 65.5 in May. MCX July crude oil futures may open today’s session near Rs 6350 levels with resistance near Rs 6375-80 levels. Traders awaited weekly updates on petroleum inventories due out on Tuesday from the American Petroleum Institute and on Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration. Also the energy traders will be looking for the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report, which will release a day early on Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday. For the day, the traders will be looking for the release of a key manufacturing gauge.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 9:39AM Gold Jumps Beyond $1330 On Upbeat China PMI Gold futures jumped beyond $1330 an ounce in the electronic trades today getting a boost from China’s upbeat official manufacturing purchasing manager’s index for June. The final June reading for the HSBC PMI is due out later Tuesday. Chinas official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51 in June from 50.8 in May, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing, which issues the data with the National Bureau of Statistics, said in a statement Tuesday. The overall improvement echoes a rise in the HSBC "flash" manufacturing PMI, released earlier in June, which rose to 50.8 in June. The "flash" figure is based on 85% to 90% of responses to its PMI survey. COMEX August bullion futures are trading up $6.2 at $ 1328.2 an ounce in the Asia electronic hours today. Yesterday, it settled up $2, or 0.2%, for the session to settle at $1,322 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold moved a little after the U.S. reports released Monday showed that Chicago PMI retreated in June and May pending home sales jumped 6.1%. In Europe, inflation in the euro zone remained stable at 0.5% in June, missing forecasts of a 0.6% reading ahead of the ECB’s meeting on Thursday. MCX August gold futures may open today’s session near Rs 27820 levels with resistance near Rs 27900 levels. Traders focus this week will remain on the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report, which will release a day early on Thursday due to the Independence Day holiday on Friday. For the day, the traders will be looking for the release of a key manufacturing gauge.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 9:13AM Economic Buzz: South Korea Inflation At 1.7% In June South Koreas consumer price index rose 1.7% on the year in June after the same-rate gain the previous month--marking the fastest pace since October 2012, government data showed Tuesday. Month-on-month, the June index fell 0.1% after a 0.2% rise in May. Core CPI, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, rose 2.1% on the year in June after increasing 2.2% in May. The index gained 0.1% on the month in June following a 0.3% rise in May. The Bank of Korea expects inflation to accelerate to 2.1% for all of 2014, following a 1.3% increase in 2013--the slowest in 14 years. The central bank has held its key policy rate at 2.5% since May last year. The BOK maintains an inflation target band of 2.5% to 3.5%.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 9:09AM Economic Buzz: South Korea Exports Rebound In June South Koreas exports increased in June after the previous months decline largely caused by fewer working days, government data showed on Tuesday, as the rebound was weaker than expected. Exports in June rose 2.5% from a year earlier to $47.836 billion, following a revised 1% fall in May, according to the trade ministry. Imports gained 4.5% from a year earlier to $42.550 billion in June, compared with a 0.3% increase in May. 4 Trade surplus narrowed to $5.286 billion in June from the previous months $5.31 billion. The countrys trade balance has been in the black since February 2012. For 2013, South Koreas exports grew 2.1% while imports fell 0.8%, which produced a trade surplus of $44.09 billion. The trade ministry forecasts a 6.4% rise in exports this year.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 9:06AM Economic Buzz: Japan Manufacturing Activity Expands In June Japanese manufacturing purchasing managers index increased to 51.5 in June, more than the flash estimate of 51.1, from 49.9 in May. This was the first expansion in three months. Manufacturing activity rebounded in June on account of increases in output and new orders, results of a survey by Markit Economics and the Japan Materials Management Association (JMMA) revealed Tuesday. Manufacturing production and new business increased for the first time since March in June. Meanwhile, new export orders declined, though at a slower pace than in the previous month. Purchasing activity rose for the first time in three months in June.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/07/2014 9:03AM Economic Buzz: China HSBC Manufacturing PMI Climbs In June Chinas HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers index, or PMI, rose to 50.7 in June, slightly below the consensus estimate of 50.8, from 49.4 in May. This marked the first signs of improvement since December 2013. Manufacturing activity rose for the first time in six months in June, results of a survey by Markit Economics and HSBC Bank showed Tuesday. New orders rose at its fastest rate in 15 months in June, partially due to the notable improvement in the health sector, and improved market conditions boosted sales. Output grew for the first time since January and the rate of growth was quickest since November 2013. Backlogs of work increased for the first time in five months, leading to a rise in new work.
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