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SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/09/2014 11:38AM Economic Buzz: German Economy Contracts 0.20% In Q2 Federal Statistical Office said in the second estimates that German economy expanded 0.8% annually in Q2, after 2.5% growth in the previous quarter. On a quarter to quarter, German economy fell 0.2% after 0.7% in the previous quarter.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/09/2014 Economic Buzz: Indias Manufacturing Growth Eases In August Indias HSBC manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 52.4 in August from Julys 17-month high of 53. The manufacturing sector expanded for the tenth consecutive month in August but the pace of growth slowed from Julys 17-month high, survey data from Markit Economics showed Monday. Output at Indian manufacturing companies expanded at the second-sharpest rate since February 2013. Similarly, new orders increased in August but the pace of growth slowed from Julys 17-month peak.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 01/09/2014 MCX Gold Lingers Around Rs 27900 Mark, Ukraine Worries Support MCX Gold futures are hovering around Rs 27900 per 10 grams today though the sentimentsare upbeat after a revival in last week. Gold witnessed good gains amid continued bargainbuying as a rally from two week low extended. Renewed worries on the Ukraine front helpedboost the sentiments. The metal is also witnessing some buying as the key $1300 levelsemerge on the horizon. COMEX Gold hit a one week high last week and is currently quotingat $1288.90 per ounce, up $1.50 per ounce on the day. MCX Gold futures are trading at Rs27920 per 10 grams, down Rs 76 per 10 grams or 0.27% on the day. Gold has been gaining following the escalation of worries in Russia-Ukraine crisisafter a brief reprieve over last few days. The crisis is set to morph into a full-fledgedglobal issue as leading American senators have called for the US to send weapons to helpUkraine fight what they say is a Russian invasion. The head of the Senate ForeignRelations Committee said Russia must face a cost for its aggression, according to mediareports. Safe haven buying picked up last week Ukraine stated that Russian forces have seizedthe coastal town of Novoazovsk and several villages near the border with Russia, part of awider assault yet again. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko called for an emergencymeeting of the United Nations Security Council and the European Council to respond to whathe called the incursion of Russian forces. This pepped up gold, which has been trying hardto recover from its two month lows. Gold has been dented by demand worries before the current surge. Chinese demand worrieshad escalated selling pressure in gold over last few days. Chinas gold imports from HongKong in July fell by 42% from a month earlier, according to the Hong Kong Census andStatistics Department today, media reports quoted. As per the latest Gold Demand Trends report released by World Gold Council, world golddemand for Q2 2014 was 964 tonnes, down 16% year on year from 1,148 tonnes, central bankpurchases rose 28 % year on year, to 118 tonnes from 92 tonnes, total bar and coin demandfell by 56% year on year to 275 tonnes from 628 tonnes, ETF outflows were 40 tonnes, atenth of the outflows seen in the same period last year. Total jewellery demand also fell by 30 % year on year, to 510 tonnes from 727 tonnes.Technology demand came in at 101 tonnes, down 3% versus the same period last year. Totalsupply increased by 10% to 1,078 tonnes. Gold council expects supply to peak in 2014 andplateau over the next 4- 6 quarters.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 26/08/2014 Technical Comment For The Day: Copper A fourth consecutive re-bounce in Copper has been noted in the trades of 26 August 2014. The prices are expected to move above Rs 432 per kg which will also be the breach of double top formation. The rise can get extended to Rs 438 per kg. The only worry for Copper is the diminishing volumes that are because the contract is reaching expiry. Relative Strength Index of Copper is at 58. Open interest is at 9698 as against 10382. The 200 day EMA is set at Rs 426.6 per kg.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 26/08/2014 Technical Comment For Day: Crude oil MCX Crude Oil settled at Rs 5683 per barrel, down 0.07%. Prices of Crude Oil peaked at Rs 5724 per barrel on 25 August 2014, while the trough of Rs 5666 per barrel was respected. Interesting to note is that the prices to form supports near Rs 5679 per barrel which is contract low for the commodity. The resistance is now set at Rs 5750 and 5777 levels. Long term resistance for Crude Oil is at Rs 5900 per barrel. RSI is at 25 which are in oversold zones, expectation of bounce in the contract is high.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 26/08/2014 Technical Comment For The Day: Gold MCX Gold formed depleting pattern in the intraday moves on Tuesday. The formation of lower lows pattern is expected to continue. Open interest in Gold is at 9426 against 9363 on 22 August 2014. Prices are looking all set to decline towards Rs 28150 per 10 grams. Volume was at 9500 compared to 15871 at the start of the month. It is still a tricky call for Gold on the higher side as the prices failed to move above Rs 28500 on an intraday basis. It is also far below the 200 day moving average set at Rs 28404 per 10 grams. The prices closed at Rs 27771 per 10 grams, down 0.15%.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 26/08/2014 Economic Buzz: China Conference Board Leading Index Rises 1.3% In July Chinas conference board leading index added 1.3 percent, following the 1.3 percent increase in June and the 0.7 percent gain in May. The economy continued to expand in July at a steady pace, the latest survey showed. The coincident index added 1.2 percent in July after gaining 0.9 percent in June and 0.7 percent in May.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 26/08/2014 Economic Buzz: Japan Corporate Service Prices Climbs 3.7% In July Japans index measuring corporate service prices were up 3.7 percent on year in July, the Bank of Japan said on Tuesday, coming in at 102.7. The figure was unchanged from the previous month following an upward revision from 3.6 percent. On a monthly basis, prices were flat after adding 0.2 percent in June.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/08/2014 9:51AM Agri buzz : Canada Grain Production Estimated Lower Wheat production in Canada was forecast at 27,704,700 tonnes in 2014, down 26% from a record 37,529,600 tonnes in 2013, Statistics Canada said in its Production of Principal Field Crops report issued Aug. 21. n++The anticipated decrease is the result of 2.6 million fewer harvested acres, and an overall yield decline of 17.6% to 44 bus per acre,n++ Statistics Canada said of the all wheat production forecast. Wheat production was forecast to decline 27% in Saskatchewan, 22% in Alberta and 35% in Manitoba.n++At the time of the survey, farmers on the Prairies reported that excessive rains in late June were likely to affect harvestable area,n++ Statistics Canada said. Production forecasts were based on a survey of 12,850 Canadian farmers from July 23 to Aug. 4. Final production estimates for 2014 will be released Dec. 4 and are subject to revision for two years. Production of spring wheat was forecast at 19,972,300 tonnes, down 27% from 27,238,700 tonnes in 2013. Winter wheat production was estimated at 2,779,200 tonnes, down 27% from 3,786,400 tonnes in 2013. Durum outturn was forecast at 4,953,200 tonnes, down 24% from 6,504,500 tonnes last year. Canola production in 2014 was forecast at 13,908,000 tonnes, down 23% from 17,960,100 tonnes in 2013. Average canola yield was forecast at 32 bushels per acre, down 20% from last year. Canola outturn was forecast to decline 25% in Saskatchewan, 17% in Alberta and 27% in Manitoba.Canadian corn production was forecast at 11,430,500 tonnes, down 20% from 14,193,800 tonnes in 2013.Soybean production was forecast at a record 5,900,700 tonnes in 2014, up 14% from 5,198,400 tonnes in 2013. Barley production was forecast at 7,163,600 tonnes, down 30% from 10,237,100 tonnes in 2013. Oats outturn was forecast at 2,639,400 tonnes, down 32% from 3,888,000 tonnes a year ago. Statistics Canada forecast flaxseed production at 908,100 tonnes, up 28% from 712,300 tonnes in 2013.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/08/2014 10:19AM Indian Rupee: Gains On Inflow Optimism The Indian rupee added gains in early trades on Friday, 22 August 2014 tracking gains in Asian currencies markets. Moreover, increased optimism that foreign institutional investor (FII) will continue to invest in India in the short term added to gains in the unit. The domestic currency opened up by 17 paise at Rs 60.50 against the US dollar and dipped to a low of 60.53 before climbing to a high of 60.41 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 60.45, higher by 23 paise or 0.37% as compared to previous close at 60.67. Rupee weakened slightly on Thursday, snapping a three-day rising streak, as the dollar rallied broadly after minutes from the Federal Reserve July meeting suggested potentially earlier-than-expected rate hikes. The Reserve Bank of India in its Annual Report for the year ended 30 June 2014 released after trading hours on Thursday, 21 August 2014, said that the acceleration in consumer price inflation (CPI) in July 2014 driven by vegetable price spike indicate that the upside risks persist to RBIs disinflationary glide path of taking CPI inflation to 8% by January 2015. However, some of the increase in food prices could be temporary and there are early indications that the price corrections are underway in select items like tomato, the RBI said. The central bank also said that the recent decline in oil prices could partly offset the pressure from food prices. Domestic benchmark indices edged higher in early trade tracking firmness in Asian stocks. Asian shares rose in early trading on Friday, after upbeat U.S. data sparked another record close on Wall Street. Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought Indian shares worth a net Rs 412.77 crore on Thursday, 21 August 2014, as per provisional data from the stock exchanges. At the time of writing, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 116.17 points or 0.44% to 26,476.28 while the CNX Nifty was up 28.10 points or 0.36% to 7,919.20. In the global currency market, the dollar hovers just below its 2014 peak against a basket of major currencies, with bulls turning cautious ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. The dollar index, which measures the US currencys strength against major currencies, was trading at 82.14, down 0.02% from the previous close of 82.154.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/08/2014 10:53AM Commodities Buzz: Baosteel Stainless Steel Raises Domestic List Prices For Stainless Steel Products Baosteel Stainless Steel Co., one of the major stainless steel producers in China announced its domestic list prices for stainless steel products for September. The company decided to raise its prices for 304 grade hot rolled coils by RMB200/ton for September. However, Baosteel Stainless remained its list prices for 304 grade cold rolled coil and 400 grade stainless steel products unchanged.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/08/2014 10:57AM Commodities Buzz: Russia Imports Of Stainless Steel Products Increases By 2.4% On Y-o-Y Basis Russias imports of stainless steel products totaled 124,200 tons in January-June period, increasing by 2.4% year on year, according to data released by the Russia-based SpetsStal Association. During the given period, the countrys imports of steel long products soared by 16.7%; those of steel flats increased by 7%; those of ERW pipes were down by 18%; all compared from the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, the countrys imports of seamless steel pipes and billets dropped by 33.7% and 21.7% respectively. Imports of wire rod saw an increase of 18% on the prior corresponding period a year ago.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 22/08/2014 11:51AM Economic Buzz: US Existing Home Sales Edge Up As Rebound Continues In Housing Market The US housing market is witnessing a good bounce after some of the recent data hadraised questions about the continuation of the upswing in the market that was battered inthe global financial crisis. Sales of existing homes edged up 2.4% from June to aseasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.15 million, the National Association of Realtors saidThursday. July was the fourth consecutive month sales rose from the prior month. However,the latest figure is down 4.3% from a year earlier. Earlier in the week, the US CommerceDepartment said construction on US new homes rose 15.7% in July to an annual rate of 1.09million. This marked the highest level of construction since November last year.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 18/08/2014 9:57AM Technical Comment For The Day: Gold A rising wedge pattern has been noted in the prices of Gold in last few weeks. The prices have been witnessing a channel between Rs 28900 and 28200 per 10 grams. RSI for Gold is at 61, which has potential to move upwards. Last outing for Gold on MCX was at Rs 28614 per 10 grams. The prices tested a high of Rs 28775 per 10 grams and a low of Rs 28501 per 10 grams. Open interest was at 9295 on 14 August 2014 against 9906 on 13 August 2014.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 18/08/2014 9:41AM Technical Comment For The Day: Crude Oil Increasing volumes in Crude Oil is creating problems for Crude Oil. The fall in Crude Oil for the third straight session has brought the prices near Rs 5829 per barrel on 14 August 2014. The metal has seen high volumes during the sessions of selling. The last outing saw volumes of 62439 in Crude Oil. RSI is the only indicator that is pointing towards oversold conditions in Crude Oil. After the brief trendline support of Rs 5940 per barrel was broken Crude has seen sharp declines in MCX. Ideally, Rs 5780 and 5760 looks a support for the commodity in coming sessions. On the higher side, Rs 5880 and 5950 per barrel are the resistances.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 18/08/2014 Technical Comment For The Day: Copper Five days of sharp correction has brought MCX Copper on its toes. The metal contracted to levels of Rs 415.8 per kg on 14 August. A double bottom formation is active in Copper that can see a decline towards Rs 410 per kg once Rs 415 per kg is taken out of the equation. On the higher side Rs 422 per kg is the active resistance for the metal. Last outing saw metal testing a high of Rs 420.9 per kg and a low of Rs 415.5 per kg. RSI is at 34 that are indicating some more selling is possible. Although volumes are declining on a constant basis.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/08/2014 5:31PM Spot Market Update: Jeera Drops As Arrivals Improve In Unjha Demand remains steady in Jeera as traders eye the festive season though good arrivals are capping the prices. The supplies in Unjha stood at 6000 bags today- much higher than the 3000-4000 bangs seen over last few weeks. The arrivals are still low compared to their seasonal highs of around 10000-12000 bags few months back but are prompting a weak response from the buyers. The spot prices in Unjha are lingering at Rs 11300 per quintal, down Rs 50 per quintal on the day. Export demand is easing a bit. The export prices are at $2.93 per kg, gaining by 10% over last one month.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/08/2014 5:32PM Spot Market Update: Mustard Seed Steady Meal Demand Poor Mustard seed prices stayed steady today after breaking under Rs 3700 per quintal few days back though the massive selling pressure in edible oils market pulled prices lower. Mustard seed prices are giving up now as edible oils and oilseeds market in India witnesses some correction owing to recent pick up in kharif sowing. The acreage under mustard seed stood at 70.35 lakh hectares, up 6% in the last rabi season. Spot prices of RM Seed in Jaipur are trading at Rs 3650 per quintal, down Rs 10 per quintal on the day.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/08/2014 5:34PM Signs Of Correction Imminent In Gold, Demand Worries Hit Sentiments MCX Gold eased today as the commodity faced a resistance in global markets on near termdemand worries. As per the latest Gold Demand Trends report released by World GoldCouncil, world gold demand for Q2 2014 was 964 tonnes, down 16% year on year from 1,148tonnes followed by a major drop in bar and coin demand. Global geopolitical worries arealso taking a breather and that is limiting buying in the futures. COMEX Gold futures aretrading at $1311.40 per ounce, down $3.10 per ounce on the day. Prices had hit a threeweek high around $1325 per ounce last Friday. MCX Gold futures for October are trading atRs 28535 per 10 grams, down Rs 153 per 10 grams or more than half a percent on the day. As per the latest Gold Demand Trends report released by World Gold Council, world golddemand for Q2 2014 was 964 tonnes, down 16% year on year from 1,148 tonnes, central bankpurchases rose 28 % year on year, to 118 tonnes from 92 tonnes, total bar and coin demandfell by 56% year on year to 275 tonnes from 628 tonnes, ETF outflows were 40 tonnes, atenth of the outflows seen in the same period last year. Total jewellery demand fell by 30% year on year, to 510 tonnes from 727 tonnes. Technology demand came in at 101 tonnes,down 3% versus the same period last year. Total supply increased by 10% to 1,078 tonnes.Gold council expects supply to peak in 2014 and plateau over the next 4- 6quarters. The US dollar is managing to hold near nine month high under 1.3400 against the Euro ona continued poor run of data from the Eurozone. German economy contracted by 0.2% in thesecond quarter of 2014, losing momentum after a robust first quarter which was helped bythe mild winter. The Federal Statistics Office said Thursday that the balance of exportsand imports had a negative effect on the German economic development. Global equities are broadly supported this week as Ukraine agreed with Russia, theEuropean Union and the US to allow a Red Cross-led mission to provide humanitarianassistance to eastern Ukraine, where Kiev is trying to quell an uprising by pro-Russianseparatists. In Iraq, Prime Minister Nouri al-Malikis hold on power is weakening,possibly opening the way for a less divisive figure to lead the government, which isfighting an insurgency, according to media reports.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 14/08/2014 6:05PM Economic Buzz: US Jobless Claims Increase U.S. Department of Labor said that the advance figure for seasonally adjustedinitial claims was 311,000 for the week ending August 9, an increase of 21,000from the previous weeks revised level. The previous weeks level was revised upby 1,000 from 289,000 to 290,000. The 4 week moving average was 295,750, anincrease of 2,000 from the previous weeks revised average. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.9 per centfor the week ending August 2, unchanged from the previous weeks unrevised rate.The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the weekending August 2 was 2,544,000, an increase of 25,000 from the previous weeksrevised level. The previous weeks level was revised up 1,000 from 2,518,000 to2,519,000. The 4 - week moving average was 2,528,250, an increase of 9,000 fromthe previous weeks revised average.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 13/08/2014 9:35AM Technical Comment For The Day: Crude Oil Crude Oil yet again posed a dismal show in the trades on Tuesday. The prices were expected to recover but changed dynamics of international markets created new opportunities for selling. Crude oil on MCX tested a low of Rs 5945 per barrel and ended the session at Rs 5981 per barrel, down 0.50%. The metal tested a high of Rs 6005 per barrel. The pattern of lower lows is persisting that can get extended to Rs 5850 per barrel. Open interest in Crude Oil increased to 12104 against the levels of 10081 on Monday. The settlement on Tuesday was at Rs 5981 per barrel, down 0.50%.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 13/08/2014 10:42AM Economic Buzz: Australia Consumer Sentiment Climbs In August Australias Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index rose 3.8 percent month-on-month to 98.5 in August from 94.9, still remaining below the no-change mark of 100. In July, the index had risen 1.9 percent. Consumer confidence in Australia increased at a faster rate in August. The sub-index measuring household financial expectations rose 11.9 percent. Employment expectations improved in August but remained below the peak recorded in March. On a year-over-year basis, the index fell 6.8 percent in August.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 13/08/2014 10:59AM Indian Rupee: Weaker On Poor Economic Data The Indian rupee commenced fairly lower on Wednesday, 13 August 2014 after weak macro economic data released yesterday. Moreover, dollars gains against other currencies and a weak opening in the domestic equity market added pressure on the rupee. The domestic currency opened weaker by 20 paise at Rs 61.28 against the US dollar and dipped to a low of 61.30 before recovering to a high of 61.22 so far during the day. In the spot currency market, the Indian unit was last seen trading at 61.25, down 16 paise or 0.26% as compared to previous close at 61.09. Rupee rose slightly on Tuesday as gains in local shares improved sentiment even as global currency markets continued to see-saw because of conflicting signs coming from geo-political flashpoints such as eastern Ukraine. On the domestic front, the index of Industrial Production (IIP) slowed to 3.4% in June, as against 5% in May, mainly due to lower output of consumer goods while retail inflation inched up to 7.96% in July as against 7.46% in June, mainly due to higher prices of food items such as vegetables, fruits and milk. Domestic benchmark indices reversed initial fall triggered by data released after market hours on Tuesday, 12 August 2014 showing that consumer price inflation (CPI) accelerated in July and factory output grew at a slower pace in June. Asian shares struggled on Wednesday after Wall Street snapped a two-day rally with the crisis in Ukraine sapping investor confidence as it threatens a fragile economic recovery in Europe. In the global currency market, euro nursed only modest losses, having regained quite a bit of ground. The dollar index is trading around 81.50 levels.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 13/08/2014 Economic Buzz: China Industrial Production And Retail Sales Slow Slightly In July The National Bureau of Statistics of China said that yearly industrial production slowed to 9% in July, from 9.20% last month and retail sales also slowed to 12.20% against 12.40% previous month.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 13/08/2014 Economic Buzz: German CPI Slows To 0.80% In July Federal Statistical Office reported that German CPI slowed to 0.80% in July, from 1% last month and on a month wise, CPI steady at 0.30%. Annual inflation fell primarily due to fall in energy prices.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 13/08/2014 11:37AM Commodities Buzz: Sugar Output In Brazils Main Region Drops 12% Brazil’s Centre South region, responsible for some 90% of Brazilian sugar output,produced 2.24 million (m) tonnes of the commodity in the second half of July, down 12.5%on volumes in the first half of the month, data from industry group Unica said. Theslowdown, which also took output 12 % below year-ago levels, reflected in part the rainsin central Brazil which slowed cane harvesting. The country is witnessing poor caneprocessing yields and mills are slowing processing on expectations of diminished canevolumes in next few months.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 12/08/2014 9:05AM Technical Comment For The Day: Crude Oil The extended selling pressure in Crude Oil is showing signs of waning. The prices are now looking to create a base near Rs 5950 per barrel and are expected to see some moves on the higher side. The gains in Crude Oil are expected to be near Rs 6050 per barrel and further elevation towards Rs 6120 per barrel looks likely. The gains on Monday of 0.60% came with declines in open interest. This indicates that the positions of Crude Oil are changing towards longs. Crude Oil first target now will be to surpass 50 day EMA set at Rs 6128 per barrel.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 12/08/2014 9:05AM Technical Comment For The Day: Copper The prices of Copper remained dull in the trades on Monday. However, the closure of the prices was a shred below Rs 430 per kg, which is a acting psychological barrier as of now. The red metal closed in red for the second straight day at Rs 429.75 per kg. Copper remains vulnerable to test Rs 424 per kg, which is now a important support. The breach of Copper below Rs 424 will be a breach of double bottom formation that can get extended upto Rs 417 and 410 per kg. On the higher side Rs 433 per kg is expected to remain causing problems for the metal.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 12/08/2014 9:21AM Technical Comment For The Day: Gold The prices of MCX Gold showed little volatility on the session ending 11 August 2014. The metal remained in a dull range of Rs 28693 per 10 grams and a low of Rs 28528 per 10 grams. The gains in MCX Gold are expected to be resisted at Rs 28800 per 10 grams from here. Meanwhile, supports for Gold are at Rs 28450 per 10 grams. RSI of 62 is showing further signs of improvement though it can be a false signal looking at the movements yesterday. Open interest was at 9815 on Monday increased by 9541 last week.
SHRINAM GLOBE COMMODITIES 12/08/2014 10:04AM Agri Buzz FAO Food Price Index hits a six-month low The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organizations (FAO) Food Price Index decreased for a fourth consecutive month in July mainly due to a sharp decline in international prices for maize, wheat and certain oilseeds, reflecting ample supplies for these commodities. Based on the prices of a basket of internationally-traded food commodities, the FAO Food Price Index averaged 203.9 points in July 2014, down 4.4 points (or 2.1%) from a revised value in June and 3.5 points (or 1.7%) below the July 2013 level. The lingering decline of food prices since March reflects much better expectations over supplies in the current and forthcoming seasons, especially for cereals and oils, a situation that is expected to facilitate rebuilding of world stocks, said FAO senior economist Concepcin++n Calpe. In contrast, meat prices rose for the fifth consecutive month in July, and those for sugar remained firm. The fall in quotations for grains, oilseeds, as well as dairy products pushed down the FAO Food Price Index to its lowest level since January.
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